| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Conor McGregor | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Sean O'Malley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Alex Pereira | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Israel Adesanya | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Justin Gaethje | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Kayla Harrison | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Islam Makhachev | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which fighters will be listed on the UFC 2026 White House event card; it matters because fighter selection will reflect a mix of sporting merit, promotional strategy, and logistical or political constraints for a high‑profile venue.
UFC numbered events are typically major pay‑per‑view cards featuring title fights and popular contenders; staging an event at the White House would be an unusual, high‑visibility arrangement requiring coordination between the promotion and multiple government agencies. Fighter selection for a special‑venue card often prioritizes name recognition, matchup appeal, current rankings, and the ability to meet security, medical, and contract requirements.
Market prices aggregate participants’ expectations based on news and risk, but they are not guarantees of the final card; they will move as official announcements, injuries, contract changes, or government approvals occur.
The timing of a final card depends on the UFC and any government partners; because the market's close is listed as TBD, public announcements (UFC press releases, fighter confirmations) are the key triggers that will cause rapid market updates once made.
Eligibility depends on an active UFC contract, medical and commission clearance, security/background checks required for White House access, visa status if applicable, and whether the promoter deems the matchup appropriate for a special‑venue event.
Injuries, suspensions, and failed medicals are common reasons fighters are removed; credible reports from the UFC, athletic commissions, or the fighter’s camp are the most relevant signals and typically lead markets to update expectations quickly.
Once a market closes, trading normally stops and subsequent official developments won’t change settled positions; check Kalshi’s specific settlement and event‑resolution rules to understand how late changes are handled for this market.
Monitor official UFC announcements, statements from fighters and their managers, reputable MMA journalists (who often report contract and matchup news), athletic commission filings, and any formal statements from White House or security offices involved in hosting.