| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Las Vegas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which cities will be officially awarded professional basketball expansion franchises before 2028. It matters because expansion decisions shape local economies, media rights, and long‑term league strategy.
Professional basketball leagues typically expand through a process that evaluates ownership groups, arena readiness, and market economics; expansion involves a formal award by a league and often a substantial franchise fee. Historically, leagues balance growth aims (new markets, TV distribution) against labor, scheduling, and competitive balance concerns when choosing expansion destinations.
Market prices aggregate participants' views about which cities are likely to be awarded expansion slots before 2028; use them as a real‑time summary of expectations, not as definitive outcomes. Prices can shift rapidly as new announcements, approvals, or financing developments occur.
A city 'receives' a team when a recognized professional basketball league publicly and definitively awards an expansion franchise to that city and that award is confirmed by the league prior to Jan 1, 2028. Announcements of interest, proposals, or nonbinding plans do not count.
The market covers awards made by established professional basketball leagues operating at a national or international professional level (for example, top‑tier domestic leagues). Semi‑professional, amateur, or purely exhibition operations are not considered expansion awards for this market.
No — a relocation is typically not an expansion. Only newly created expansion franchises count unless the league explicitly characterizes a transaction as issuing a new expansion franchise to that city rather than transferring an existing franchise.
Conditional approvals or approvals that are contingent on future votes or unmet conditions do not count until the league issues a final, unconditional award. Public announcements that remain conditional are treated as proposals rather than definitive awards.
A metropolitan area that is officially awarded one or more expansion franchises is treated as having 'received' expansion team(s); whether multiple franchises change the market’s reporting depends on the market’s outcome format, but each official award to that metro counts toward the city’s status.