| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Switzerland | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Turkey | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| China | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Germany | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| United States | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Russia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the location of the next meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, an event with substantial diplomatic and security implications. The location of any such meeting signals shifts in mediation, security guarantees, and the diplomatic posture of involved states.
Since Russia's 2014 interventions and the large-scale invasion in 2022, direct contacts at the presidential level between Moscow and Kyiv have been rare and politically fraught. Any face-to-face or formally confirmed bilateral encounter between Putin and Zelenskyy would be a significant development reflecting changes in battlefield dynamics, third-party mediation, or domestic political calculations. Potential venues often discussed in diplomacy include neutral third countries, multilateral summits, or specially arranged, secure sites agreed by both sides.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about where the next verified meeting will occur and will move as new information (announcements, mediator actions, security changes) arrives. These prices are not forecasts of intent by the leaders but rather a consensus signal about perceived likelihoods at a given moment.
Whether virtual meetings count depends on the event's specific settlement language; markets like this usually specify if in-person bilateral meetings only, or if direct bilateral video/phone calls confirmed by official sources also qualify. Consult the event’s settlement criteria for the precise definition used to determine outcomes.
Settlement typically relies on verifiable evidence from authoritative sources: official joint statements, published photos/videos of a bilateral encounter, or corroboration from recognized third-party media and organizations. The event operator’s dispute-resolution or evidence rules govern how conflicting claims are resolved.
That depends on the event wording: some markets count a formal bilateral engagement on the summit sidelines as a meeting, while mere simultaneous attendance without a documented bilateral interaction usually does not. The market’s definitions determine whether a summit appearance qualifies.
A TBD close means the market remains open until the operator sets a closing date or until the event is otherwise resolved or canceled. Outcomes will be settled based on meetings that occur after the market’s opening and in accordance with the operator’s published close and settlement procedures.
No—most markets require a confirmed bilateral meeting in the specified city to qualify. Simply being in the same city without a documented meeting or bilateral interaction would not satisfy the typical criteria for a winning outcome.