| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 2025 and 2035? | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any U.S. state will lose at least 10% of its population during the period 2025–2035. The outcome matters because large state-level population losses affect federal funding, congressional apportionment, state budgets, and long-term economic planning.
U.S. state populations are typically stable year-to-year, with most change coming from net migration, births, and deaths. Large, rapid state-level declines are uncommon in recent decades but can follow severe economic collapse, sustained out-migration, or major disasters and displacement. Official population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and state demographers are the usual benchmarks used to document such changes.
Prediction market prices aggregate diverse information and signal how traders collectively assess the chance of the specified outcome, and they will move as new economic, demographic, or event-driven data arrive. Use prices as one real-time input alongside official demographic estimates and qualitative news when forming your own view.
The market covers population change during the 2025–2035 interval; the precise reference dates and whether endpoints are inclusive will be defined in the market rules. Traders should consult the market contract specification to see which calendar dates or official estimates are used for settlement.
Most contracts of this type rely on official state population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau or state demographers. The market’s settlement rules will specify the authoritative source and the exact series or release used.
Settlement typically depends on population measurements at the official reference dates, not temporary mid-period fluctuations. Short-term displacements that are reversed by the measurement date usually won’t be counted as permanent declines; check the contract’s settlement methodology for details.
Large decade-long state population declines are uncommon in the contemporary United States; sharper declines are more frequently observed at the county or city level after industrial collapse or major disasters. Historical context and past episodes of regional demographic loss help traders assess plausibility but do not determine settlement.
Resolution will follow the contract’s defined measurement dates. Typically, only the official comparison between the designated 2025 and 2035 reference estimates matters, so a mid-decade dip that is reversed by the settlement measurement would not satisfy a threshold measured at the endpoints. Confirm the exact settlement rule in the market specification.