| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago C -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chicago C -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Washington -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Washington -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the run differential between Washington and Chicago C will fall over the first five innings of their game. It matters because first-five-innings spreads isolate starting-pitcher performance and early-game strategy, providing a focused betting line separate from full-game outcomes.
First-five-innings spread markets settle based solely on runs scored in innings one through five, so they emphasize starting pitchers, early lineup matchups, and managerial decisions (e.g., whether a starter is pulled early). Historically, these markets move most on late-breaking roster news (confirmed starters, scratches), weather, and announced bullpen usage, rather than on long-term team form.
Market prices represent the crowd’s consensus expectation for which of the market’s outcome buckets will occur in the first five innings; price changes reflect new information (starter confirmation, weather, lineup changes) and market participants’ changing beliefs rather than fixed guarantees.
The market listing shows the official close time as TBD; exchanges that run these markets typically close trading at or shortly before the game’s first pitch. Settlement occurs after the first five innings are completed, based on the official MLB scoring for innings 1–5; consult the exchange listing for the exact close and settlement timestamps once posted.
Settlement is determined solely by the run differential between Washington and Chicago C through the end of the fifth inning (top and bottom of innings 1–5). Runs scored after the fifth inning, in extra innings, or by statistical reclassification that doesn’t change the official first-five-innings box score do not count unless the exchange’s official source is updated to reflect them.
The four outcomes partition all possible first-five-innings run differentials into four mutually exclusive buckets defined on the market page. The market’s interface will show the exact run-differential cutoffs for each outcome—check that page for the precise definitions.
Settlement uses the exchange’s designated official source (typically the MLB official box score) for the first five innings. If that source is updated or corrected before the exchange’s finalization window closes, settlement reflects the corrected official record; if you need definitive guidance, consult the exchange’s settlement rules.
If the game does not reach a completed five innings before being called, the exchange’s cancellation or void policy applies; if the game is suspended and later resumed, settlement will use the completed first-five-innings runs once the contest is finished per the exchange’s rules. Always refer to the market terms for exact handling of incomplete or suspended games.