| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa wins by over 11.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 23.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 20.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 14.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 17.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 2.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 8.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Virginia wins by over 1.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 26.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 29.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iowa wins by over 5.5 Points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the point spread for the college basketball game Virginia at Iowa will fall across 11 possible margin bins. It matters because spread markets let traders express views on the expected margin of victory rather than just the winner.
Virginia (ACC) and Iowa (Big Ten) bring contrasting styles that commonly shape spread lines: Virginia has a reputation for disciplined defense and slower pace, while Iowa often relies on higher-scoring offense and home-court production. The game being played in Iowa gives a clear home advantage factor; late-breaking news such as injuries, lineup changes, or coaching adjustments can move the market rapidly.
Prices across the 11 outcomes represent the market's relative assessment of which margin bin is most likely; higher-priced bins indicate stronger market support relative to others. Because prices update in real time, interpret them as a snapshot of collective expectations and compare bins to identify where traders see value.
Close time is listed as TBD on the platform; typically such markets close shortly before tip-off. The winning outcome is determined by the final score margin at the end of regulation (see contract rules for overtime handling).
Each of the 11 outcomes maps to a distinct point-margin bin (ranges covering everything from a large Virginia win through a large Iowa win). The bin that contains the final margin wins.
Home advantage typically shifts expected margins toward the home team; consider travel fatigue, crowd impact, and how each team historically performs at home versus on the road when weighing outcomes.
Late availability news can substantially change expected margins; because this market currently shows low traded volume, such news may produce larger price swings. Monitor official injury reports and adjust exposure only after confirming reports.
Settlement and cancellation handling follow KALSHI's contract rules—check the platform for specifics. In most spread markets overtime counts toward the final margin; for postponements or cancellations, exchanges typically either void or reschedule markets per their policy.