| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla wins by over 1.5 goals | 16% | 14¢ | 16¢ | — | $492 | Trade → |
| Sevilla wins by over 2.5 goals | 4% | 4¢ | 6¢ | — | $38 | Trade → |
| Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals | 11% | 12¢ | 13¢ | — | $25 | Trade → |
| Vallecano wins by over 2.5 goals | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
This market lets traders take positions on which goal-margin (spread) bucket will apply in the Vallecano at Sevilla match. It matters because spread outcomes summarize the likely margin of victory and react quickly to matchday information.
Vallecano and Sevilla are competing clubs whose relative strengths, recent form, and head-to-head history shape expectations for the match margin. Context such as fixture congestion, injuries, and managerial tactics in the days leading up to kickoff will influence how traders view each spread outcome.
Market prices reflect the aggregated views of participants about which spread outcome is most likely given available information; changes in prices signal how new information shifts expectations.
The market close time is listed on the KALSHI event page and is currently TBD; typically these markets close at or just before kickoff. Settlement is based on the official match result at the end of regular time (final whistle) according to KALSHI's rules—check the platform for exact close and settlement timing.
They represent four mutually exclusive goal-margin buckets covering different ranges of final-score margins (e.g., home-heavy, narrow home, narrow away, away-heavy). The platform shows the exact margin boundaries for each outcome and the winning outcome is determined by the final score margin at full time.
Resolution follows KALSHI's event policies: for most league matches settlement uses the final score at the end of regular time; extra time or penalties typically do not apply for standard fixtures. Abandonment or postponement is handled per the platform’s rules and may result in voiding or delayed settlement—refer to the event rules on KALSHI for specific procedures.
Monitor the announced starting XIs, last-minute injuries or suspensions (especially to leading scorers or the goalkeeper), tactical setup or formation changes from either manager, recent scoring and conceding trends, and any travel/fatigue issues that could change expected goal margins.
Sharp moves usually follow new information: a late injury or lineup change, confirmation of a key player’s absence, unexpected weather or pitch news, official team announcements, or concentrated trading activity that incorporates private information—watch news feeds and the platform’s updates to interpret moves.