| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 55% | 41¢ | 56¢ | — | $17 | Trade → |
| Washington wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 0% | 22¢ | 45¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| USC wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Washington wins the 1H by over 18.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Washington wins the 1H by over 12.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Washington wins the 1H by over 15.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| USC wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| USC wins the 1H by over 12.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Washington wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 13¢ | 34¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| USC wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 0% | 11¢ | 32¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how large the scoring margin between USC and Washington will be at the end of the first half, letting traders express expectations about which team will hold an early lead. First-half spreads matter because they reflect opening-game execution, play-calling tendencies, and early-game matchups that can differ from full-game dynamics.
USC and Washington are longstanding programs with differing styles that often make early-game matchups intriguing: one team may prioritize a fast-paced passing attack while the other emphasizes tempo-control and a physical run game. Coaching decisions, recent roster changes, and how both teams deploy their starters into the first half have historically driven notable variation in opening-half margins. Conference context, travel, and short-term trends (quarterback health, offensive line availability) also shape early-game expectations.
Market prices on this event reflect collective expectations of which first-half point-differential interval is most likely; they are a summary signal, not a certainty. Use these prices alongside game-day information (starter announcements, weather, injury reports) to form a trading decision.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD — check the KALSHI market page for the final close. The ten outcomes each correspond to a specific first-half point-differential range; the market settles to the single outcome whose range contains the official halftime margin.
Settlement is based on the official point differential at the end of the first half as recorded by the league's official statistics; that halftime margin determines which outcome wins.
No. Only points scored during the official first half count toward settlement; second-half scoring and overtime are not considered.
If play does not reach an official halftime, the market will be resolved according to KALSHI's contingency and settlement rules (often voided or settled per platform policy); consult the market's rules on the platform for specifics.
Late injuries, confirmed scratches, and game-day weather can materially change first-half expectations—adjust your view to reflect confirmed starters, projected replacements, and any conditions that will affect early possessions, since those have outsized influence on the halftime margin.