| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Union Berlin wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Union Berlin wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bayern Munich wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market offers wagers on the goal-margin-based outcomes (spreads) for the Union Berlin at Bayern Munich match on KALSHI. It matters because spreads express expectations about how wide the result will be, which is useful for traders who want exposure to margin rather than just win/draw/loss.
Bayern Munich frequently hosts Union Berlin in Bundesliga competition; the home team’s stadium, tactical approach, and squad depth are historically influential in determining goal margins. Union Berlin are often noted for organized defense and counter-attacking play, which can compress expected margins compared with matches against other top opponents.
Market prices for spread outcomes reflect the consensus view of traders about the likely goal margin at full time; they should be read as market-implied assessments, not guarantees. Traders use these prices to compare perceived value, hedge other exposures, or speculate on how factors before kickoff will change the expected margin.
The market settles on the official full-time goal margin as defined by KALSHI’s event rules (for example, specific bands like one-goal margin, two-goal margin, etc.). Settlement uses the official match score recorded by the designated authoritative source.
Closing time is listed as TBD for this event; typically KALSHI markets close before kickoff. Check the event page on KALSHI for the official close time once it is announced.
Settlement is based on the official match result as reported by the competition’s recognized authorities and the sources specified in KALSHI’s settlement rules (usually the league’s official match report).
Resolution in those situations follows KALSHI’s contingency and force majeure policies: markets may be voided, suspended until a new date is set, or settled according to platform rules. Consult KALSHI’s official event rules for the specific handling of postponements or abandonments.
Last-minute personnel changes can materially shift expected margins; traders should monitor official lineups and injury news up to kickoff. Markets may move accordingly, and any in-play events (like red cards) that occur during the match affect the final margin used for settlement.