| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Tobias | 62% | 61¢ | 62¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| Diyar Nurgozhay | 38% | 37¢ | 38¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
This prediction market covers which fighter will win the UFC 326 bout between Tobias and Nurgozhay; it matters because the market aggregates trader expectations about the fight outcome and reacts to fight-week developments.
Tobias vs Nurgozhay is a scheduled mixed martial arts contest on the UFC 326 card; the match outcome will influence each fighter's momentum, matchmaking options, and public perception within their division. Event details such as exact date, card placement, and market close time are set by the promoter and the trading platform and may be updated as the event approaches.
Market prices represent the collective sentiment of traders and change with new information like injuries, weigh-ins, or official announcements; interpret prices as a dynamic snapshot of expectations rather than a guarantee of outcome.
The market close time is listed as TBD and will be set by the platform; settlement typically occurs after the official fight result is posted by the UFC or the relevant athletic commission, so check the platform for the final close and settlement timing.
This market has two tradable outcomes corresponding to which fighter wins the bout (one outcome per fighter); consult the market page for any event-specific wording and how non-standard results are handled.
Settlement uses the official result as recorded by the sanctioning athletic commission or by the UFC's official result announcement, including method and official time where applicable.
Monitor the official weigh-ins, medical clearances, any injury or withdrawal reports, corner and coach statements, and reputable fight-week reporting—these items can materially affect expectations for this specific bout.
Handling of draws, no contests, or overturned decisions depends on the platform's settlement rules for this market; traders should review Kalshi's official market settlement policy for the authoritative procedure.