| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Santos Aguilar | 35% | 34¢ | 35¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Su Mudaerji | 66% | 65¢ | 66¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
This prediction market covers the headline bout at UFC 326 between Mudaerji and Aguilar, letting traders express expectations about which fighter will win. It matters because the result can influence each fighter’s standing within the division and how the market updates on fighter valuations.
UFC headline fights typically serve as inflection points in fighters’ careers, affecting rankings, matchup opportunities, and promotional momentum. Mudaerji vs Aguilar is situated within that context: each competitor brings a recent performance history, training camp decisions, and matchup-specific strengths that fans and analysts will weigh. Market prices on this event aggregate those signals and public sentiment ahead of the bout.
In this context, market odds reflect the aggregate expectations of participants and update as new information arrives (injury reports, weigh-ins, media appearances). They are not guarantees but a real-time summary of how the market values competing information about the fight.
The close time for this market is currently listed as TBD; typically markets close shortly before the scheduled start of the bout or per the platform’s announced cut-off. Check the KALSHI platform for the definitive closing time and any last-minute updates.
This market lists two mutually exclusive outcomes tied to the official fight result: a Mudaerji win and an Aguilar win. Trades settle based on the official outcome as certified by the athletic commission and the promoter.
Key information that commonly shifts market views includes injury or illness reports, official weigh-in results and missed weight, changes to corner or coaching staff, pre-fight media sparring that reveals strategy, and any official commission rulings or late replacement notes.
Settlement follows the platform’s rules and the official result: if the commission declares a no-contest or the fight is canceled, KALSHI will apply its stated settlement policy which often results in voiding and refunding trades; if a fighter misses weight but the bout proceeds at catchweight, outcomes are typically settled to the official winner. Confirm exact procedures on KALSHI’s rules page.
A win or loss can alter each fighter’s trajectory in the division—impacting future matchups, ranking movement, and promotional positioning. It also affects public and market perceptions about a fighter’s strengths, durability, and readiness for higher-stakes bouts, which influences pricing in subsequent markets.