| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Chicago wins 2nd half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Toronto wins 2nd half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team—Toronto, Chicago, or a tie—will be leading at the end of the second half of the listed game. It matters because it isolates midgame dynamics and lets traders express views on in-game momentum and adjustments rather than final result.
The event focuses on the second-half outcome of a single Toronto vs Chicago matchup; formats that use a three-outcome structure typically include a tie option for an exact draw at the half’s end. Historical context that matters includes recent head-to-head meetings, each team’s second-half performance this season, coaching tendencies for halftime adjustments, and any short-term roster or fatigue factors around the game.
Market odds reflect the aggregate expectations of traders about which side will be leading when the second half concludes; they move as new information (lineups, injuries, in-game events) becomes available and should be read as real-time signals of market sentiment rather than fixed predictions.
Settlement is based on which team is ahead at the official end of the second half of regulation play; because this market lists three outcomes, a tie outcome corresponds to an exact tie at that time.
This market typically settles based on the regulation second-half score only; overtime is excluded unless the market’s official rules explicitly state otherwise, so check the event rules on KALSHI for confirmation.
The event shows 'Closes: TBD'; KALSHI will publish a lock time before the game start—check the event page for the exact close time as it is announced.
They affect the real-world second-half result and thus market settlement, but the official determination uses the league’s published score at the end of the second half; markets do not adjust settlement rules for in-game incidents beyond that official score.
Review recent head-to-head second-half records, each team’s second-half scoring and defensive splits for the season, coaching tendencies for halftime changes, and any recent lineup or rotation changes that could influence second-half performance.