| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which spread outcome will occur in the Toronto at Ottawa game — i.e., which margin bucket the final score will fall into. It matters because traders can express views on the expected goal differential and react to game-day information.
Toronto and Ottawa are regional rivals whose head-to-head games are influenced by matchup history, roster health, and goaltending decisions; those elements often drive swings in perception before puck drop. Markets like this aggregate bettors’ views on margin of victory rather than just winner/loser, so pregame news (starting goalies, scratches, special-teams status) tends to move prices more than longer-term standings.
Market prices reflect the collective view on which spread bucket is most likely and will move as lineups, injuries, and other news arrive. Higher prices indicate the market is assigning more value to that outcome relative to the others, but check live prices for current consensus.
The market will close before the game starts; settlement occurs after the official game result is available. Exact close and settlement timing are specified on the event page and by the exchange, so check the Kalshi contract for the authoritative schedule.
Settlement is based on the official final score as recorded by the league or venue and matched against the market’s spread buckets. The contract lists the mapping from final goal differential to each outcome and the official data source used for settlement.
That depends on the event’s settlement rules: some spread markets specify regulation time only, others include overtime and shootout. Consult the event contract on Kalshi to see which rule applies to this market.
Watch starting-goalie announcements, injury reports and scratches for top-line players or top-pair defensemen, any lineup changes released close to puck drop, and last-minute travel or illness reports — these items typically move spread pricing most.
Each outcome corresponds to a different range of final goal differentials (e.g., one outcome covers a comfortable win by the favorite, another covers a narrow margin, etc.). Read the outcome labels and descriptions on the event page to see the exact ranges before trading, and pick the bucket that matches your expectation for the margin.