| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York R wins by over 1.5 goals | 27% | 28¢ | 31¢ | — | $9 | Trade → |
| Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals | 30% | 26¢ | 29¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| Toronto wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 15¢ | 21¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York R wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 15¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants trade on the point-spread outcome for the Toronto at New York R matchup on KALSHI; it matters because spread markets aggregate real-time expectations about the margin of victory and game dynamics.
Toronto and New York R meet within a league context where home-field advantage, travel, and roster continuity often influence margins. Historical matchups between these teams, recent form, injuries, and coaching matchups provide the background that traders use to form opinions about which side will cover the spread.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about which side will cover the listed spread outcomes; because this market has four discrete outcomes, each outcome corresponds to a specific spread range or resolution condition—check the market labels for exact definitions.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined range or resolution condition tied to the final margin relative to the spread (for example, different outcomes for each side covering by various margins or a push); consult the market's outcome labels and resolution rules on KALSHI for the exact mapping.
The market's listed close is TBD; in many spread markets trading ends at kickoff or at a platform-specified time—check the KALSHI market page for the official close time and any updates.
Late changes alter expected margins and can cause rapid price movement; because this market currently shows low traded volume, a single trade or a news-driven shift could lead to larger price swings than in a highly liquid market.
Head-to-head history provides context about matchup tendencies, but weigh recent form, roster differences, venue, and situational factors more heavily—older results matter less if personnel or circumstances have changed.
Resolution follows KALSHI's market rules: typically based on the official final score as defined in the contract (often end of regulation unless otherwise specified); check the market's resolution terms on KALSHI for the governing rule in such situations.