| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Philadelphia -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Texas -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Texas -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the run differential between Texas and Philadelphia will fall across the first five innings of their game. It matters because first-five markets isolate starting pitching and early-game strategy, offering a different risk profile than full-game bets.
Texas and Philadelphia are Major League Baseball clubs with differing roster constructions and pitching staffs; matchups between them can hinge on which starters are used and how each club constructs its early lineup. First-five spreads have grown popular as they focus on the early innings when starting pitchers and planned offensive approaches have the greatest influence.
Prices in this market reflect the market’s collective expectation for the run differential after five innings; moves in price usually follow lineup announcements, scratches, weather updates, or late pitching changes. Treat prices as continuously updating consensus information rather than fixed truth.
Settlement compares the number of runs scored by each team during innings one through five inclusive; the market outcome depends on which side of the posted spread the five-inning run differential falls under, with exact settlement rules set by the contract terms on the platform.
Markets of this type typically stop accepting new trades at or just before the scheduled first pitch, but the exact close time for this specific market is shown on the market page — late changes in starting pitchers or lineups can move prices up until that close.
Only runs that score before the completion of the fifth inning count — i.e., runs must cross the plate during innings 1–5. Runs that begin with plate appearances in the fifth but complete later (after the fifth inning) are not included; consult the market’s settlement rules for edge cases.
Primary items to monitor are the announced starting pitchers and their platoon splits, the top of each team’s batting order, any late scratches or lineup moves, and bullpen availability or planned usage that could lead to early relief.
Resolution depends on the platform’s contract terms and official MLB rulings: some markets are voided if five innings are not completed, while others follow official scorer or league rulings. Check the specific market contract and KALSHI’s policies for how such interruptions are handled.