| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| St. Louis -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tampa Bay -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tampa Bay -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the run-differential spread between Tampa Bay and St. Louis will play out over the first five innings. First-five markets matter because they isolate starting-pitcher and early-game matchups rather than late-game bullpen or managerial decisions.
First-five markets settle on the score after five innings (top and bottom completed) and therefore emphasize starting staff, hitters at the top of the lineup, and early-game strategy. Team tendencies, ballpark effects, and weather often matter more here than in full-game markets. As listed, this market currently shows four distinct outcomes and a close time marked as TBD; check the platform for updates and the official settlement rules.
Odds in this market reflect the market's current consensus about which first-five outcome is most supported and will move as new information (starting pitchers, lineups, weather) becomes available. Treat market odds as a dynamic indicator of collective expectations rather than a fixed forecast.
Close time is currently listed as TBD; platforms commonly close first-five markets at or just before the first pitch or when starting-pitcher confirmations are locked. Check the KALSHI event page for the official close time and any updates.
Settlement is based on the official run differential after the completion of the top and bottom of the fifth inning according to the league and platform rules. If the game is suspended or not reached five innings, settlement follows the platform's documented procedures.
The most impactful players are the confirmed starting pitchers for each team and the hitters scheduled at the top of the batting order for the first five innings. Monitor official starting-pitcher announcements, lineup cards released before first pitch, and any late scratches.
A late starter change typically has a large effect because the market focuses on the first five innings; a weaker or stronger replacement, or a bullpen opener, can materially change expected run-scoring and thus move prices quickly after the announcement.
The four outcomes partition possible first-five run-differential scenarios into discrete buckets (for example, different margins favoring one team or the other and potentially close-margin buckets). Consult the market's outcome descriptions on the KALSHI page to see the exact thresholds and which outcome corresponds to each run-differential range.