| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU wins by over 5.5 Points | 46% | 46¢ | 49¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 4.5 Points | 54% | 54¢ | 55¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 2.5 Points | 63% | 56¢ | 62¢ | — | $882 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 10.5 Points | 31% | 29¢ | 33¢ | — | $104 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 8.5 Points | 10% | 11¢ | 17¢ | — | $6 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 5.5 Points | 16% | 16¢ | 24¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 2.5 Points | 27% | 25¢ | 29¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 4.5 Points | 19% | 18¢ | 25¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 7.5 Points | 12% | 12¢ | 20¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 1.5 Points | 65% | 59¢ | 65¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 19.5 Points | 0% | 3¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 11.5 Points | 0% | 23¢ | 28¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 20.5 Points | 0% | 3¢ | 9¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 1.5 Points | 0% | 29¢ | 34¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 10.5 Points | 0% | 6¢ | 14¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 7.5 Points | 0% | 39¢ | 45¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Syracuse wins by over 11.5 Points | 0% | 5¢ | 10¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 16.5 Points | 0% | 8¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 13.5 Points | 0% | 16¢ | 25¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 14.5 Points | 0% | 13¢ | 21¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 17.5 Points | 0% | 6¢ | 15¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| SMU wins by over 8.5 Points | 0% | 34¢ | 41¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which side of the point spread will occur in the Syracuse at SMU game and aggregates traders' expectations about the margin of victory. It matters because spread markets summarize many information sources into a single, tradable signal about how close the game is expected to be.
The market covers a head-to-head collegiate matchup between Syracuse and SMU; those programs come from different regions and typically have different roster compositions and playing styles, which influences the spread. Historical meetings between the two programs may be limited, so recent form, roster availability, and travel effects often carry extra weight in market pricing.
Market prices reflect collective market sentiment about which side will cover the posted spread; a higher price indicates stronger trader support for that outcome. Use prices together with trade volume and recent price movement to gauge how settled or volatile market expectations are, remembering prices are not guarantees but snapshots of current belief.
The market's official close time is listed as TBD; trading will typically stop before the game starts. Check the event page or platform announcements for the final close time and any last-minute changes.
The 22 outcomes break the possible margins into discrete spread buckets or named cover outcomes (e.g., each outcome corresponds to a specific cover-range or side). Each outcome pays out only if the final margin falls into that outcome's defined range; consult the market rules on the event page for the exact mapping.
Volume shows how much money has changed hands and is a proxy for liquidity and confidence; $2,650 is modest, so prices can move substantially on small additional trades. Use volume together with recent price trends to assess how robust the market view is.
Significant late news typically produces rapid price adjustments as traders update expectations; for outdoor games, adverse weather that favors low scoring can shift the spread, while injury updates that remove a key player can move the market toward the opponent. Expect greater volatility immediately after major news.
Settlement procedures depend on the platform's event rules; common outcomes are voiding trades with refunds or resolving based on a completed rescheduled game within a specified timeframe. Check KALSHI's official settlement and force-majeure rules on the event page for the definitive policy.