| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sum of seeds: 9 to 10 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 7 to 8 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 4 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 5 to 6 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 15 to 20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 21 to 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 31 to 64 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sum of seeds: 11 to 14 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the sum of the seed numbers of the four teams that reach the men's college basketball semifinals (Final Four). It matters because the seed sum summarizes whether the semifinal field is composed mostly of pre-tournament favorites or includes multiple lower-seeded upset teams.
In the NCAA tournament, each team receives a seed assigned by the selection committee before play begins; that seed number stays attached to the team throughout the event. Historically, semifinal fields can range from mostly top seeds to include surprise, lower-seeded teams — those outcomes reflect upsets, regional balance, and matchup dynamics. Tracking seed sums gives a simple, single-number way to measure how unusual or chalky a Final Four is compared with expectations.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of which seed-sum outcomes are most likely given current information and will change as games, injuries, and other news arrive. Interpret prices as an aggregate indicator of expectations, not as fixed predictions — they update in real time as the tournament unfolds.
The sum is the arithmetic total of the official tournament seed numbers assigned to each of the four teams that are recorded as semifinalists by the tournament's official source. The market uses those official seed numbers as listed on the bracket at the time the semifinalists are determined.
This market will resolve after the four semifinal teams are officially determined and the tournament's records show their seed numbers. The exchange will publish the precise settlement time once semifinalists are set; check the market page and the exchange's settlement rules for the exact timing.
The market follows the exchange's published settlement rules and the tournament's official determinations. The seed sum will be computed using the teams listed as semifinalists in the official record at settlement; any replacements or administrative decisions by the tournament will be reflected in that official record.
Teams retain the seed assigned by the selection committee on the official bracket regardless of whether they advanced via a play-in game. The seed printed on the bracket for that team is what will be used in the sum.
Watch late-round upset results, injury or suspension news for surviving teams, matchup analyses between advancing teams, coaching or travel disruptions, and public betting flow — all of these can quickly change expectations about which seeds will reach the semifinals and thus alter market prices.