| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight ends before round 2 | 0% | 11¢ | 83¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 0% | 16¢ | 78¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which round the Su Mudaerji vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar fight will be finished in, capturing expectations about early stoppage versus a late fight or decision. It matters because round-of-finish contracts isolate in-fight dynamics and can move sharply on new information like injuries or weigh-ins.
Su Mudaerji and Jesus Santos Aguilar are scheduled to meet in a professional bout; each fighter brings a track record of finishes, durability, and stylistic tendencies that shape how the contest might unfold. There is typically no direct head-to-head history for fresh matchups, so traders should weigh recent opponents, activity level, camp news, and any change in weight class or promotion.
Market prices summarize collective expectations about when (if at all) the fight will end via stoppage; they move as public information changes. Use them as a dynamic signal, and always confirm settlement rules on the contract page for edge cases.
The market close is listed as TBD; typically KALSHI closes such markets at or immediately before the bout's official start time. Check the market page for the exact timestamp and any platform announcements.
'Round of finish' refers to the numbered round in which the bout is ended by referee stoppage, knockout, technical knockout, submission, or doctor/corner stoppage. If the fight goes to a judges' decision, or is declared a no-contest or disqualification, settlement will follow the contract's stated resolution rules—read the contract description for details.
Key items are each fighter's historical finishing rates and methods, susceptibility to finishes (durability), recent activity and injuries, any change in weight class, and how their styles match up (e.g., power punching vs. wrestling control). Recent film and opponent quality provide essential context.
Weigh-in outcomes (including missed weight), medical clearances, visible injuries, and late-camp reports can materially alter finishing chances; these events often trigger rapid market movement, so monitor official promotion and commission statements.
Settlement follows KALSHI's contract terms. Many round-of-finish markets are voided or settled according to specific rules if the bout is changed to a no-contest, disqualification, or canceled before a particular point—consult the market's resolution terms for the authoritative procedure.