| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Santos Aguilar by Submission | 20% | 16¢ | 20¢ | — | $613 | Trade → |
| Jesus Santos Aguilar by Decision | 15% | 12¢ | 15¢ | — | $116 | Trade → |
| Su Mudaerji by KO/TKO/DQ | 27% | 22¢ | 27¢ | — | $82 | Trade → |
| Jesus Santos Aguilar by KO/TKO/DQ | 5% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $79 | Trade → |
| Su Mudaerji by Submission | 4% | 4¢ | 6¢ | — | $4 | Trade → |
| Su Mudaerji by Decision | 0% | 42¢ | 44¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Draw | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the Su Mudaerji vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar fight will be decided — the method of victory — which matters because different outcomes (stoppage vs. decision vs. other resolutions) reflect distinct skill matchups and trading opportunities.
This bout pairs two professionals whose styles, recent form, and camp conditions will shape whether the fight finishes early or goes to the judges. Historical tendencies (how often each fighter finishes or is finished), recent opponents, and any news from camps or medical checks provide important context for this market.
Market odds here represent the aggregated expectations of traders about how the fight will be decided and update as new information arrives; interpret them as a live consensus signal while also considering the market's liquidity and total volume (currently modest).
The market close is listed as TBD; final closing time will be set by the platform (KALSHI) and is often before or very near the scheduled fight start—check the market page for the official close time and any last‑minute changes.
Method-of-victory markets commonly separate stoppages (KO, TKO), judge decisions (unanimous, split, majority), disqualification, and draw/no contest; consult the platform's outcome labels to see the exact seven choices for this event.
Look at each fighter's recent fight footage, finishing rates, level of recent opposition, punch power vs. chin/durability metrics, round-by-round activity, and any camp reports (injuries or limited prep) that could reduce output or resilience.
Settlement follows the platform's rules and the sanctioning body's official result; many markets use the authoritative result from the commission or governing body and may wait for appeals or official overturn notices—check KALSHI's settlement policy for this event.
Weigh-in struggles, missed weight, or scratches often shift expectations—weight issues can reduce power or lead to fight cancellations, while medical scratches may void or suspend the market; such developments are usually reflected immediately in prices if the market remains open.