| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinners | 0% | 53¢ | 65¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Team Nemesis | 0% | 35¢ | 45¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the outcome of Map 2 in the closed qualifier match between Sinners and Team Nemesis in Stake Ranked Episode 1. It matters because a single map can determine the match trajectory and influence qualification chances in the tournament.
Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier 2026 is a feeder stage for the main event; teams in closed qualifiers have advanced through earlier regional or open stages and face higher stakes for a spot in the main tournament. Sinners and Team Nemesis meet as part of the qualifier bracket, where map wins, map differential, and momentum matter for advancement and seeding.
Market odds reflect the aggregate expectations of traders based on available information (rosters, recent form, map history) and update as new information arrives. Use odds as a real-time signal of market sentiment, while also taking into account independent scouting and official match developments.
The market closes according to the match schedule set by the tournament and the market operator (KALSHI); Map 2 is played immediately after Map 1 as part of the scheduled best-of series—check the official tournament schedule and live stream for exact local timings.
This market settles on the official winner of Map 2 as recorded by the tournament organizer and the market operator; overtime results count toward the map winner, while cancellations, forfeits, or official match reversals will be resolved per the tournament and market resolution rules.
Primary influencers are typically the in-game leader (IGL) for tactical calls, the AWPer for long-range control, and leading entry fraggers or support players for utility usage; check each team’s announced roster and recent match stats to identify the current impact players for this specific matchup.
Map 1 can reveal tactical tendencies and force teams to adapt—losing a map often prompts strategic changes, confidence shifts, and different economic approaches, while the winner may carry momentum; also consider map veto order, since earlier maps influence which maps remain and side preferences.
Events such as player no-shows, network/connectivity failures, official investigations or penalties, or tournament schedule changes can alter settlement; in these cases the market will follow the official incident resolution and settlement policies from the tournament organizer and KALSHI.