| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke wins the 1H by over 22.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 1.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 7.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 13.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 19.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 25.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 28.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 31.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 4.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 10.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Duke wins the 1H by over 16.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which side of the first-half point spread between Siena and Duke will occur during the game's opening half. It matters because first-half markets isolate early-game dynamics—useful for traders who want exposure to starting lineups, tempo, and immediate coaching strategy rather than full-game variance.
Duke is traditionally a high-major program with deeper rotations and frequent national exposure, while Siena is a mid-major program that often plays as an underdog against power-conference opponents. First-half spread markets reflect short-run matchup features (starting five, early pace, shot selection) rather than end-of-game adjustments, and outcomes can differ from full-game expectations because of small-sample variance in a 20-minute window.
Market odds here express the collective view of traders about which first-half spread outcome is most likely and will move as new information arrives. Treat those prices as a dynamic signal driven by incoming updates (lineups, injuries, tip-off circumstances), not as fixed predictions.
The event page lists the market close as TBD; typically first-half spread markets lock at or immediately before the game's scheduled tip-off to prevent trading on in-play information. Monitor the KALSHI event page for the platform's official close time announcement.
Multiple outcomes represent different discrete spread thresholds or outcome buckets for the first half, allowing traders to take positions on finer-grained margins rather than a single binary result. The range of outcomes creates more trading options for varying expectations about the halftime margin.
Late injury reports or scratches to starters, announced starting lineups, coach statements about rotation or strategy, travel or scheduling disruptions, and credible lineup-related news from team or beat reporters are the biggest drivers of price movement before tip-off.
Settlement follows the platform's official market rules: if the first half is not completed or the game is postponed, KALSHI's event rules determine whether trades are voided or settled. If an official stat correction is recorded before halftime by the governing scorer, that corrected score is used to determine the first-half result. Consult the platform's rulebook for precise settlement procedures.
Watch which guards start (ball-handling and perimeter shooting influence early scoring), interior size and rebounding matchups (affecting second-chance points), presence of primary three-point shooters, anticipated minutes for key bench contributors, and whether a top defender is available to alter opponent shot efficiency in the opening half.