| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight ends before round 2 | 47% | 11¢ | 99¢ | — | $833 | Trade → |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 0% | 51¢ | 82¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when the fight between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay will finish (which round the bout ends in). It matters for traders who want exposure to timing of a finish rather than only who wins.
Round-of-finish markets complement winner markets by focusing on whether a fight ends early, late, or goes the distance. Relevant context for this bout includes each fighter's historical finishing methods, recent activity and known injury or camp updates; those elements shape expectations about whether the fight is likely to end in an early round or later. The market lists two outcomes and has traded volume on KALSHI; the market close time is currently listed as TBD.
Market prices are a snapshot of collective trader sentiment about when the fight will end and update as new information arrives. Treat them as a real-time indicator of market expectations, not a guarantee of the actual outcome.
This market lists two outcomes; the exact label for each outcome (for example, an early-round bucket versus a later-round bucket or a specific-round label) is shown on the market page. Settlement follows the outcome label definitions displayed there.
The market currently shows 'Closes: TBD'; typically these markets close at or shortly before the official scheduled start of the bout. Settlement is based on the officially announced round of finish from the promotion or athletic commission; check the market page for updates on final close time.
Markets settle according to the official result from the sanctioning body. If the doctor or commission stops the fight between rounds before the next round begins, most jurisdictions record the stoppage as occurring in the prior round; the market will follow the official ruling.
How a decision is treated depends on the market’s outcome labels. If an outcome explicitly covers 'going the distance' or the market includes a decision bucket, it will settle accordingly; otherwise the market will follow its predefined settlement rules based on the official result—consult the market page for the exact settlement mapping.
Monitor weigh-in results, any medical or withdrawal notices, late-reported injuries, changes in corner or coaching staff, video from open workouts or sparring, and official statements from the promotion—each can shift expectations about whether the fight is likelier to end early or go later.