| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Tobias by Submission | 37% | 35¢ | 37¢ | — | $322 | Trade → |
| Rafael Tobias by Decision | 15% | 13¢ | 16¢ | — | $63 | Trade → |
| Diyar Nurgozhay by Submission | 5% | 5¢ | 7¢ | — | $3 | Trade → |
| Rafael Tobias by KO/TKO/DQ | 22% | 18¢ | 22¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO/DQ | 0% | 18¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Draw | 0% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Diyar Nurgozhay by Decision | 0% | 10¢ | 13¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders express views on how the bout between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay will end — by knockout/TKO, submission, decision, or other official result. Method-of-victory markets matter because different outcomes reflect different fighter strengths and game plans and often move independently of who is favored to win.
Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay come from distinct competitive backgrounds and styles; observers typically compare their striking, grappling, and finishing tendencies when assessing likely outcomes. The market captures that nuance by offering separate outcomes for each fighter's path to victory plus a non-decisive result, letting traders take views not only on who wins but how they win.
Market odds reflect traders' consensus about the likelihood of each method of victory relative to others and update as new information emerges. Interpret prices as signals about market sentiment (informed by public news, fight film, weigh-ins, and activity) rather than fixed predictions.
This market lists distinct method outcomes for each fighter (typically: Rafael Tobias by KO/TKO, Rafael Tobias by submission, Rafael Tobias by decision; Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO, Diyar Nurgozhay by submission, Diyar Nurgozhay by decision) plus a single non-decisive outcome such as Draw/No Contest, totaling seven outcomes.
Doctor stoppages and corner stoppages are treated as KOs/TKOs for the opponent listed as the winner on the official result; the market resolves to the corresponding KO/TKO outcome once the official result is posted by the bout’s commission or promoter and recognized by the exchange.
Settlement follows the official result recognized by the athletic commission and the exchange’s resolution rules: if the result is later changed to a no contest or overturned, the market will be settled according to that updated official ruling once it is adopted by the platform.
The market remains open until the exchange posts a stated close time (here listed as TBD) and settles after the fight once the official result is recorded by the commission and reported to the platform; final settlement can be delayed if the commission’s official decision or post-fight reviews are pending.
Key moving factors include weigh-in results and any missed weights, announced injuries or withdrawals, publicized changes in fight camp or corner personnel, new film or scouting reports highlighting strengths/weaknesses, and real-time news from fight week such as reported illness or visible damage at media events.