| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Bonzi | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rafael Jodar | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which player will win the first set in the Rafael Jodar vs Benjamin Bonzi match. It matters for traders who want exposure to early-match momentum and opening-set volatility.
The market focuses on a single set outcome rather than the match result, so short-term factors like serve strength, opening-game breaks, and early nerves matter more than long-term endurance. Historical head-to-head, playing surface, and recent match load provide useful context for anticipating how each player starts matches. Sudden developments (late withdrawals, injuries, weather) can quickly change expectations for the first set.
Market prices represent the crowd’s current view of who will take the first set and update as new information arrives. Treat prices as one input alongside match reports, live scoring, and player-specific tendencies.
The official close time is listed on the KALSHI market page and is currently TBD; typically such markets close when the match begins or at the scheduled start time, but check the platform for the definitive close.
Settlement is based on the official result of the first completed set as recorded by the match officials; if the first set is completed before a retirement, that set result is used. If the set is not completed, settlement follows KALSHI’s stated rules for unfinished matches—see the market description.
There are two outcomes: Rafael Jodar wins set 1, or Benjamin Bonzi wins set 1.
Announcements of late withdrawal, visible injury or medical timeouts, changes in weather conditions (for outdoor matches), and early-breaks or dominant opening service games during live scoring are the biggest drivers.
Focus on same-surface results and how each player has started recent matches (first-set wins/losses), giving more weight to very recent matches and to matches played under similar conditions; use this alongside live reports rather than as a sole predictor.