| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 1+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4+ cycles | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market concerns whether one or more professional baseball players will record a hitting “cycle” (single, double, triple and home run in the same official game) under the event’s specified conditions. It matters because cycles are rare, high-variance game events that attract attention and create short-lived trading opportunities tied to lineup and game-day information.
A cycle combines power and speed and has been a celebrated, infrequent feat throughout professional baseball history; its rarity means that small pieces of information—like who is in the lineup or where a game is played—can move expectations substantially. Changes in offensive environment, ballpark dimensions, roster construction, and how teams use pinch-hitters or defensive replacements influence the historical frequency of cycles and how often they occur in a given season.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which of the listed mutually exclusive outcomes will settle and will update as information (lineups, weather, injuries, substitutions) arrives; interpret prices as the market’s current view rather than guarantees of outcomes.
Settlement depends on the market’s rulebook: check the event page or official rules to see which professional leagues, regular-season or postseason games, and any exclusions (exhibitions, minors) are included.
The market page lists seven mutually exclusive outcome statements that define every possible settlement scenario; read each outcome’s exact wording on the event page so you understand what specific event would cause that outcome to settle.
The event currently shows a closing time of 'TBD'; once a closing time is posted it will typically be set before the relevant games begin, and late roster or weather news can move prices until that deadline.
A cycle is settlement-defined as a single player recording a single, double, triple and home run in the same official game as reflected in the official box score; official scorer decisions and league stat authorities govern whether individual plays count.
Watch starting-lineup releases, late scratches or lineup swaps, pinch-hitting plans, pitcher matchups, ballpark and weather updates, and in-game substitutions—each can materially increase or decrease a player’s chances of obtaining the required combination of hits.