| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500+ Foot Home Run | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any professional-baseball batted ball will be recorded as a home run that traveled 500 feet or more. It matters because such hits are exceptional and reflect a confluence of player power, launch conditions, and measurement methods.
Very long home runs are rare across pro levels; modern tracking systems (Statcast, TrackMan) enable precise distance estimates, which makes markets like this possible. Historical records show only a small number of batted balls reach or exceed 500 feet, so the occurrence is notable when it happens; the market’s contract specifies which leagues, games, and measurement sources are included.
Market prices aggregate traders’ collective assessment of whether a qualifying 500+ foot home run will be recorded in the contract period; prices will move as new information appears. Always read the market’s contract text to understand the exact qualifying definition and authoritative measurement source before trading.
The event’s contract defines qualification; typically it means a batted ball officially recorded at 500 feet or more by the specified tracking system and ruled a home run in the official game record. Check the contract text to confirm the authoritative measurement source and any additional requirements.
That is specified in the market contract. "Pro Baseball" can include MLB and/or other professional leagues and may include or exclude exhibition and postseason games—verify the market description to know which competitions count.
Distance is usually reported by tracking systems like Statcast or TrackMan or by official league data; the market contract names the authoritative source whose measurement or replay review will determine qualification.
Whether those plays qualify depends on the contract’s wording. Many definitions require the batted ball to be recorded as a conventional over-the-fence home run and measured by the specified system, but the exact treatment of unusual plays is set out in the market rules.
Follow lineup announcements and injury reports for power hitters, track exit-velocity and launch-angle trends from Statcast, monitor which ballparks are hosting games (including altitude differences), watch weather and wind forecasts for game days, and check the market page or contract for any official updates or clarifications.