| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Aaron Judge | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Eugenio Suárez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Junior Caminero | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Juan Soto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nick Kurtz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pete Alonso | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jo Adell | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ketel Marte | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Matt Olson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rafael Devers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kyle Tucker | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Teoscar Hernández | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Brent Rooker | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shea Langeliers | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Julio Rodriguez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jose Ramirez | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hunter Goodman | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bryce Harper | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Austin Riley | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| James Wood | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Zach Neto | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Riley Greene | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mike Trout | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Manny Machado | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether individual professional baseball players will record a season of 40 or more home runs in the upcoming season. It matters because a 40+ HR season is a clear indicator of elite power production and is sensitive to health, playing time, and contextual factors that traders follow.
Historically, 40+ home run seasons are uncommon and concentrated among players with a mix of power skill, consistent playing time, and favorable park or lineup contexts. Recent changes in launch-angle approaches, equipment and league rules, plus shorter/longer seasons in certain years, have changed the frequency of high home-run totals. This market presents multiple individual-player outcomes so traders can express views on specific power hitters rather than the league as a whole.
Market prices reflect collective market expectations for each listed player and update as new information arrives (injuries, lineup moves, spring training results, trades, etc.). Compare prices across players and watch price movement to see how the market is reacting to developments, but always check the contract rules on the event page for exact settlement definitions.
The market lists 35 specific player outcomes; the full roster of named players and their outcome wording appear on the market page. Consult that page to view every included player and any shorthand or specific naming conventions used.
Resolution is based on the contract's official definition; typically these markets use official regular-season statistics only, but you should read the event's settlement rules on the Kalshi page to confirm which games are counted.
The event currently shows a closing time as TBD; the market page will display the official close date and time once set. Trades cannot be placed after the announced market close, and that close determines which season is evaluated for settlement.
Such developments affect market prices as new information, but settlement is based on the official statistical record used by the contract. If a player is traded or changes role, their home runs count toward their season total per the contract's counting rules; check the event rules for edge-case protocols.
Each listed player outcome is evaluated independently, so multiple player outcomes can resolve affirmatively if several players reach 40+ home runs. Verify the event's settlement language for whether outcomes are binary per player or structured differently, which is detailed on the market page.