| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland wins by over 7.5 Points | 57% | 56¢ | 57¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 10.5 Points | 46% | 44¢ | 46¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 4.5 Points | 65% | 65¢ | 66¢ | — | $372 | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 1.5 Points | 75% | 71¢ | 74¢ | — | $219 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins by over 8.5 Points | 11% | 7¢ | 11¢ | — | $101 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins by over 2.5 Points | 22% | 17¢ | 22¢ | — | $87 | Trade → |
| Memphis wins by over 5.5 Points | 17% | 14¢ | 16¢ | — | $58 | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 13.5 Points | 34% | 35¢ | 38¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 16.5 Points | 26% | 26¢ | 29¢ | — | $5 | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 19.5 Points | 0% | 21¢ | 23¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Portland wins by over 22.5 Points | 0% | 13¢ | 19¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market lets traders buy and sell outcomes on the point spread for the Portland at Memphis game; it aggregates bettors' views about how much one team will beat or lose to the other. The market matters because it synthesizes public and informational signals about injuries, lineups, and matchup edges into a single, tradable price structure.
Portland and Memphis have contrasting styles that typically shape spread markets: Portland often relies on perimeter scoring and individual creation while Memphis emphasizes defensive intensity and physicality, especially at home. Historical head-to-head trends, recent roster changes, and coaching matchup dynamics all influence market pricing, and bettors often watch late-breaking news—like scratches and rotation changes—because those items tend to move the spread. Because this is a discrete-outcome spread market (11 outcomes), traders are buying into granular scenarios rather than a single binary result.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about which spread outcome is most likely and how likely alternate outcomes are; they update as new information arrives. Treat prices as real-time summaries of available information, not guarantees of a result.
A late scratch typically moves the market because it changes expected on-court production and rotations; depending on the player's role, traders may reprice multiple spread outcomes quickly. Monitor official injury reports and lineup confirmations for immediate impact.
The event page currently lists the close as TBD; on KALSHI, close times are set by the platform and often occur shortly before game start or when the market administrator specifies—check the event page for the official close time as it is posted.
Starting lineups matter because they reveal matchups, defensive assignments, and rotation depth; if a matchup changes materially (e.g., a primary defender is out), consider how that affects expected scoring margins and let the market reaction inform entry or exit timing.
Yes—home-court factors such as familiarity with the arena, crowd pressure, and travel fatigue for the visitor are commonly priced into spread markets. Account for venue-specific trends (team home records, travel distance) when evaluating outcomes.
Volume indicates how much capital has moved through the market and can be a rough proxy for liquidity and information aggregation: higher volume generally means tighter pricing and faster incorporation of news, while lower volume can lead to wider price swings and less reliable consensus.