| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how many combined runs Pittsburgh and New York (Mets) will score through the first five innings of the scheduled game. It matters because it isolates early-game scoring and lets traders express views on starting pitching, lineups, and game conditions before later innings and bullpen actions.
First-5 innings totals are a common market type in baseball because they focus on the period most influenced by starting pitchers and planned lineups. Historical head-to-head tendencies, ballpark characteristics, and each team’s approach to the lineup and starting rotation shape outcomes; check the announced starters and lineups for the most relevant context. Platform settlement rules and MLB official scoring determine how atypical game events (suspensions, weather-shortened games) are handled.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders about which outcome is most likely given available information; odds will move as new information arrives (starter changes, weather, lineups). Use the market alongside box-score data, starting pitcher reports, and weather updates when forming a view.
Settlement follows the platform’s official rules and MLB’s official scoring: if the first five innings are not completed as defined by the platform, the market may be voided or settled according to a specific rule. Check KALSHI’s event rules for this market for final determination.
The first five innings refers to innings 1–5 of the scheduled game as recorded in the official MLB scorebook; runs scored in those innings are used for settlement. If the game doesn’t reach an official completion of those innings, the platform’s contingency rules apply.
A starter change is material for a First-5 Innings total: it can alter expected early-inning run scoring and typically causes market movement as traders re-price outcomes. Monitor official announcements and adjust positions based on the replacement’s profile and handedness.
The seven outcomes represent discrete ranges or exact total brackets for combined runs through five innings; each outcome maps to a specific scoring interval shown on the platform. Review the outcome labels on KALSHI to see the exact ranges before trading.
Verify official starting pitchers and batting orders, confirm weather and wind forecasts for the first few hours of the game, watch for late scratches or lineup changes, and review any recent injury or bullpen news that could affect early innings.