| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto wins 1st half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Phoenix wins 1st half | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team — Phoenix or Toronto — will be leading at the official end of the first half of the game on KALSHI; it matters for traders who prefer short‑term game outcomes rather than final results.
First‑half markets isolate early‑game dynamics and are commonly offered for sports with distinguishable first‑half periods (for example, basketball or soccer). Outcomes reflect immediate factors such as starting lineups, initial rotations, and coaching game plans, and can differ materially from full‑game expectations because momentum and early execution often drive halftime leads.
Market prices represent the crowd’s aggregated view of which side is likely to be leading at halftime and move as new information arrives (lineup news, injuries, tip‑off conditions). Use prices as a snapshot of consensus rather than a certainty.
This market has three outcomes: Phoenix leading at the end of the first half, Toronto leading at the end of the first half, or the score being tied at the end of the first half. Settlement uses the official halftime score as recorded by the sport's official scorer.
The market resolves at the official end of the first half (halftime) according to the league's game clock and official scoring. If the first half is suspended or not completed, settlement follows KALSHI's event rules, which may rely on the league's determination or result in an invalidation.
Pregame starters and sudden availability changes are high‑impact information because they directly alter matchups and possession patterns early in the game; such news typically moves prices quickly in first‑half markets.
Consider travel distance, time‑zone changes, and recent rest (e.g., back‑to‑back games), since these factors often affect early energy levels, focus, and execution that determine halftime leads.
If the official score at the end of the first half is tied, the Tie outcome wins. Any overtime or second‑half events do not affect the resolution of the first‑half market.