| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 11% | 11¢ | 23¢ | — | $427 | Trade → |
| Cleveland | 72% | 66¢ | 79¢ | — | $2 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 5¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which team—Philadelphia or Cleveland—or a tie will be leading at the end of the first half of their scheduled game. It matters to traders who want to express views on early-game performance, momentum, and halftime advantages.
This market is tied to a specific Philadelphia vs Cleveland matchup listed on KALSHI; outcomes depend on the teams' rosters, recent form, and in-game conditions for that particular game. Historical head-to-head patterns and each team's tendency to start strong or slow can provide context, but settlement is determined by the official game score at the end of the first half.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about who will lead at halftime and will update as new information (starting lineups, injuries, tip-off status) becomes available. Use them as a dynamic indicator of perceived early-game advantage, not a guarantee of outcome.
The three outcomes are: Philadelphia is leading at the official end of the first half, Cleveland is leading at the official end of the first half, or the score is tied at the official end of the first half.
Settlement is based on the official score at the end of the first half; however, last-minute lineup news often moves market prices before tip-off, allowing traders to adjust positions in response to scratches or injuries.
No — settlement uses the official score at the conclusion of the first half only; subsequent overtime or second-half events are irrelevant to this market's outcome.
The event page lists the close time as TBD; KALSHI typically closes markets before or at game start and may allow in-play trading if specified — check the market page for the final open/close policy for this listing.
Look at each team's first-half scoring averages, opponent-adjusted pace, turnover rates early in games, starting five minutes performance, and availability of primary scorers or defenders who influence early-game momentum.