| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Napolitano | 42% | 40¢ | 42¢ | — | $640 | Trade → |
| Luka Pavlovic | 55% | 58¢ | 60¢ | — | $500 | Trade → |
This market asks which fighter — Pavlovic or Napolitano — will win the upcoming match. It matters because trading prices aggregate public information and respond quickly to news about the fight.
Both competitors bring a professional record, recent form, and stylistic tendencies that traders and analysts use to assess the likely outcome. Historical results against common opponents, recent performances, camp reports, and any prior meetings between them provide context that can influence market movement. The market currently lists two outcomes and its official closing time is to be determined.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they should be treated as a dynamic signal, not a guarantee. Higher trading volume and broader participation generally make market prices more robust, while thinly traded markets can move sharply on individual trades or news.
This market trades two outcomes corresponding to which fighter wins the bout. Check the market page for the exact settlement terms and any provisions for draws, no-contests, or cancellations.
The market close is listed as TBD; typically marketplaces close at the scheduled start of the bout or at an announced time and settle after the official result is posted by the event organizer. Monitor the KALSHI market page for the definitive close and settlement timing.
Total volume indicates how much capital has changed hands and is one measure of liquidity and market interest. Modest volume means prices can be more sensitive to individual trades or news, so interpret price moves with that context in mind.
Key late developments include official weigh-in outcomes (missed weight), injury or withdrawal reports, medical suspensions, last-minute changes to camps or corners, and official postponement or rescheduling announcements; these items typically produce immediate price reaction.
Settlement procedures depend on KALSHI's contract rules for the market; common outcomes include cancellation with refunds, delayed settlement when the bout is rescheduled, or settlement based on the official ruling if a no-contest is declared. Consult the market rules and KALSHI announcements for the event-specific policy.