| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina wins by over 1.5 goals | 29% | 29¢ | 30¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Fiorentina wins by over 2.5 goals | 12% | 12¢ | 14¢ | — | $1 | Trade → |
| Parma Calcio wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Parma Calcio wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the goal margin (spread) will fall in the Parma Calcio at Fiorentina match on KALSHI; it matters because spread outcomes capture not just who wins but by how much. Traders use it to express views on expected margin of victory and game dynamics.
Fiorentina and Parma are Italian clubs with different recent trajectories: Fiorentina is typically the higher-division, home-side favorite with a stable Serie A presence, while Parma has experienced promotions, relegations, and off-field financial disruption in past years. Historical head-to-head results, squad turnover, and competition context (league, cup, or friendly) shape expectations for margin and style of play.
Market prices on KALSHI summarize participating traders' current views on which spread bucket is most likely, and will move as lineup news, injuries, and in-game events arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal rather than a permanent prediction—they evolve up to market close.
Each outcome corresponds to a different goal-margin bucket for the final score (for example: a clear Fiorentina margin, a narrow Fiorentina margin, a narrow Parma margin or draw-related bucket, and a clear Parma margin). Check the market page for the exact bucket boundaries used by this contract.
The contract shows a closing time of TBD; typically KALSHI sports spread markets close at kickoff or slightly before, but you should monitor the specific market page for the confirmed closing timestamp.
Head-to-head history can indicate tactical matchups and psychological edges, but it should be combined with current-season form, squad availability, and context—past trends matter less than current team strength and situational factors.
Lineup releases (especially changes to the back line or striker), late injury or suspension reports, weather warnings, and unexpected managerial comments or disciplinary news are the common triggers that shift spread prices ahead of kickoff.
A total volume of $2 indicates very low liquidity, meaning prices may be volatile and reflect few participants; low volume can make prices less robust as a consensus signal and increase the impact of individual trades.