| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 46% | 45¢ | 46¢ | — | $162 | Trade → |
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 40% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $31 | Trade → |
| Pacific wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pacific wins the 1H by over 6.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 18.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 21.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Pacific wins the 1H by over 9.5 points | 0% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 3.5 points | 0% | 53¢ | 76¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 15.5 points | 0% | 4¢ | 24¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Santa Clara wins the 1H by over 12.5 points | 0% | 14¢ | 34¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the first-half point spread will land between Pacific and Santa Clara; it matters because first-half spreads isolate early-game performance and strategic matchups that differ from full-game outcomes.
Pacific and Santa Clara are regional collegiate rivals whose matchups often reflect conference style, coaching tendencies, and tempo differences. Early-game plans—starting lineups, offensive pace, and defensive matchups—tend to drive first-half results more than late-game adjustments or bench minutiae.
Market prices aggregate traders' beliefs about which side of the first-half spread is most likely to occur and update as new information arrives; interpret movements as the market reacting to news such as starting lineup announcements, injuries, or betting flow.
The market's close is listed as TBD; typically first-half spread markets close at or shortly before the official tip-off for the first half, but check the KALSHI platform for exact close time and any temporary suspensions before tip-off.
Settlement is based solely on points scored during the official first half of regulation play; points scored in the second half or in overtime do not affect the first-half spread outcome.
A late starter change will typically cause rapid price movement as traders adjust expectations for first-half scoring and defense; in some cases the platform may suspend trading briefly to allow information to be reflected in prices.
If the final first-half margin exactly matches the posted spread, many markets treat that outcome as a push and refund contracts according to platform rules; consult KALSHI's official settlement rules for this event for the precise handling.
Focus on recent head-to-head first-half margins, each team's first-half offensive and defensive efficiency, early-game turnover rates, three-point attempt and make rates in the opening half, and home/away first-half splits rather than long-ago full-game results.