| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota wins by over 11.5 Points | 37% | 32¢ | 37¢ | — | $356 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 5.5 Points | 59% | 54¢ | 58¢ | — | $208 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 23.5 Points | 11% | 7¢ | 13¢ | — | $100 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 14.5 Points | 24% | 24¢ | 28¢ | — | $15 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 8.5 Points | 0% | 43¢ | 48¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Orlando wins by over 7.5 Points | 0% | 11¢ | 16¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Orlando wins by over 4.5 Points | 0% | 17¢ | 23¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 20.5 Points | 0% | 11¢ | 17¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 2.5 Points | 0% | 64¢ | 68¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota wins by over 17.5 Points | 0% | 16¢ | 22¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Orlando wins by over 1.5 Points | 0% | 25¢ | 30¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Orlando will cover the point spread against Minnesota in their upcoming matchup; it matters because spreads summarize how the market expects the margin of victory and drive trading decisions.
Orlando (Eastern Conference) and Minnesota (Western Conference) are meeting in a regular-season NBA game; recent seasons have seen both teams rely on young star scorers and differing defensive profiles. Historical head-to-head results and each team’s current form, rotations, and injuries all shape expectations heading into the game.
Market prices for the spread reflect traders’ collective expectations about the final margin and adjust as news (injuries, rest, lineup changes) arrives. Use the market as a real-time aggregator of that information rather than a fixed prediction—prices can move up to gametime.
Settlement is based on the official final score margin: if Orlando’s final margin covers the spread specified by this market relative to Minnesota’s score, the outcome settles accordingly; check KALSHI’s settlement rules for treatment of overtime and official box scores.
The market closing time is listed on the trading platform and is currently marked TBD; in practice, spread markets typically close before the game starts or at a platform-specified cutoff, so monitor the market page for the exact closing timestamp.
Priority updates include any late-game status for each team’s primary scorers and rim defenders (for Minnesota: their leading scorers and center(s); for Orlando: their top-scoring forwards/guards); rotations and role-player absences can also swing the spread.
Past matchups provide context on matchup advantages and coaching adjustments, but markets typically weight recent games and current-season form more heavily, so look at the last several meetings and current-season performance for actionable insight.
Large moves usually reflect new information—injury reports, lineup confirmations, or significant public or sharp trading activity—so investigate the timing of the move and corresponding news to understand the driver before drawing conclusions.