| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decrease 3% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Decrease 2-2.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Decrease 1-1.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Decrease 0-0.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Increase 0.01-0.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Increase 1-1.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Increase 2-2.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Increase 3% or more | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how New York City’s official population will change during the first 18 months of the tenure referenced as 'Mamdani's' administration. It matters because population swings affect city budgets, planning, representation, and service needs.
NYC population has fluctuated in recent years due to factors such as domestic and international migration, birth and death rates, economic cycles, and the pandemic’s lingering effects. Local policy choices, housing market dynamics, and broader national immigration and economic trends have each historically influenced short-term population shifts.
Prices in this prediction market reflect the collective expectations of participants about which population-change range will be reported for that 18-month window; they update as new data or news arrive but are not guarantees of the final official number.
The start date is the official first day of the individual’s term as specified in the event rules; if the event description does not state it, the platform typically uses the swearing-in or legally recognized start date noted on the event page.
The event resolves based on the official change measure named in the event rules (for example, net change in headcount or a percentage change) and according to the data source and rounding conventions specified on the event page.
The market’s resolution source is listed in the event’s rule text; common sources include the U.S. Census Bureau, NYC Department of City Planning, or other official municipal estimates—consult the event page to see which is specified.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the platform will announce a closing date and time there, and trading typically stops shortly before the resolution data are available as described in the rules.
Resolution procedures for revisions and cutoff dates are set out in the event rules; some markets use the first official release, others allow later revisions up to a specified cutoff—check the event rules for the applicable policy.