| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 2+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 3+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 4 upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks how many upsets will occur in the Round of 8 (quarterfinal stage) of the tournament. It matters because the number of upsets can reshape the semifinal lineup and indicate shifts in team/player form and tournament dynamics.
Knockout rounds like the Round of 8 often produce surprises: underdogs sometimes benefit from matchup styles, momentum, or sudden changes in conditions. Historical patterns vary by tournament and sport—some editions are dominated by favorites while others feature multiple shocks—so context matters for interpreting outcomes. This market aggregates traders' expectations about how many of those quarterfinal matches will produce an upset.
Market odds represent the consensus view of traders about how many upsets are likely and update as new information arrives (injury news, lineups, weather, etc.). Treat the market as a real-time summary of available information, not an immutable forecast.
The market close time is listed as TBD; typically markets on this stage close before the first Round of 8 match begins and settle after all official Round of 8 match results are posted by the tournament. If the tournament schedule changes, the market platform will update closure and settlement timing accordingly.
An upset is defined by the market as a result in which the lower-seeded or lower-ranked competitor at the start of the match defeats the higher-seeded or higher-ranked competitor, based on the tournament's official seedings or rankings used by the organizer.
Only the matches designated as the Round of 8 (the four quarterfinal matches in the official tournament bracket) count toward settlement. Any preliminary or later-stage matches are excluded; if a match is rescheduled or relocated, the official bracket designation determines inclusion.
Settlement follows the tournament's official result reporting: a walkover or retirement is recorded as the official winner for that match. If a match is not played and the tournament declares no result, the market platform will follow its published rules for voiding or adjusting affected outcomes.
Common drivers include stylistic mismatches where a lower-ranked player's strengths exploit a favorite's weakness, late breaking injuries to favorites, superior recent form or momentum from underdogs, and external factors like surface or climate that negate ranking advantages.