| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 9+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 16+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 14+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 12+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 20+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 17+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 15+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 13+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 18+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 10+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 11+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ 3+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 19+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the total number of upsets that will occur during the tournament's Round of 64. It matters because upset counts drive bracket volatility and shape market flows for single-elimination events.
The Round of 64 is the first full round after any play-in games and features wide seed disparities that create both expected results and room for surprises. Single-elimination format, matchup styles, and late-breaking news (injuries, lineup changes) historically produce variability that traders try to capture with outcome-specific contracts.
Market prices reflect the aggregate expectations of participants about how many upsets will occur; prices move as new information about matchups, injuries, or scheduling becomes available.
An upset is a Round of 64 game in which the officially lower-seeded team defeats the higher-seeded team according to the tournament's published seedings; the market uses those official results for settlement.
All games officially designated as Round of 64 matchups by the tournament organizers are included; play-in/First Four games are typically excluded unless the market rules explicitly state otherwise.
The market will close prior to the first tip-off of the Round of 64 and will settle after official final scores are confirmed; the platform will post the exact close and settlement times on the market page.
The exchange divides the possible range of upset counts into 18 discrete outcomes so traders can back specific counts or buckets; each listed outcome corresponds to a particular count or range as defined on the market page.
Settlement follows the platform's resolution policy: cancelled or forfeited games and any official score adjustments are handled according to those rules, which may exclude games, treat them as no-contests, or use final official records—consult the market's resolution terms for details.