| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 1+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 12+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 9+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 10+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 7+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 3+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 4+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 2+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 5+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 11+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 8+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks how many upsets will occur in the Round of 32 of the tournament. It matters because the number of upsets strongly shapes bracket outcomes and is a common measure of unpredictability in single-elimination play.
The Round of 32 is the second full round of the tournament, where 32 teams compete and matchups are often influenced by seeding and earlier-game surprises. Historically, some tournaments see several lower-seeded teams win in this round while others follow seed expectations closely; variability comes from matchup styles, injuries, and momentum from the first round.
Market prices reflect the consensus expectation about how many lower-ranked teams will defeat higher-ranked teams in the Round of 32 and will move as new information arrives. Treat prices as a snapshot of collective belief, not a guarantee of the final count.
An upset is defined by the market as a lower-seeded team defeating a higher-seeded team in an official Round of 32 game, using the tournament seeds shown on the official bracket; overtime or regulation time does not change the definition.
Only the games designated as Round of 32 in the official tournament schedule count. Play-in or preliminary games (e.g., first-four games) are not included unless they are explicitly listed as Round of 32 matchups on the official bracket.
The 12 outcomes map to discrete possible counts of upsets in the Round of 32 (each outcome corresponds to a specific upset total or a defined range); check the market page for the exact mapping that shows which count each outcome represents.
Settlement follows the market's official resolution rules: typically the market uses the official result when the game is completed. If a game is not completed or is declared void by tournament officials, the market will settle according to its stated contingency rules—consult the event rules for the precise procedure.
Key developments include injury reports and lineup confirmations, late coaching or strategy announcements, travel or venue disruptions, and any official changes to seeding or game status; these items tend to cause rapid price movement as traders update expectations.