| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ 1+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ 2+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 3+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 4+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 5+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 6+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 7+ upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| 8 upsets | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks how many matches in the tournament's Round of 16 will be classified as upsets. It matters because the aggregate number of upsets captures how unpredictable the first knockout round is and is sensitive to late information such as injuries and lineup choices.
The Round of 16 is typically the first knockout stage after group play and features head-to-head elimination matches. Historically, knockout rounds often produce more surprises than group play because single-match outcomes, tactical choices, and variance (extra time, penalties) play a larger role. Seeding, bracket alignment, and pre-tournament rankings or odds are common reference points used to judge whether a result is an upset.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives (injuries, lineups, weather, etc.). Higher-priced outcomes indicate the market currently treats those counts as less likely, while lower-priced outcomes indicate they are more commonly expected, but prices can move quickly around key events.
Definitions vary by listing; many markets use pre-tournament seeding, official rankings, or bookmaker odds to identify the nominal underdog, and an upset is recorded when that underdog wins the match. Check the market's rules page for the exact definition used here.
Settlement typically occurs after all Round of 16 matches have been completed and official results are confirmed by the event organizer. The market aggregates the number of matches that meet the upset definition; consult the market page for the specific settlement timing and confirmation procedure.
The eight outcomes correspond to discrete possible totals for the number of upsets across the Round of 16. The market page will show the exact labels (for example, a range starting at 0 or 1), so verify the outcome mapping there before trading.
Most settlement rules count the official match winner regardless of whether the result came in regulation, extra time, or penalties, so an underdog advancement after extra time or penalties would typically be counted as an upset. Confirm the market's official settlement rules to be sure.
Handling of postponed or voided matches depends on the platform's stated contingency rules; outcomes may be delayed until official resolution or the market may be voided for that match. Check the exchange's event terms and settlement rules for the precise policy used here.