| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicaragua -2.5 first 5 innings | 53% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $14 | Trade → |
| Israel -2.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 53¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nicaragua -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Israel -1.5 first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 95¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the run differential will fall over the first five innings of the Nicaragua vs Israel baseball game; it matters for traders who want exposure to starting pitching and early-game offense rather than the full game.
This is an international-matchup spread market listed on KALSHI with four possible outcomes; total volume traded is currently $0 and the market close time is listed as TBD. First-five-innings markets emphasize starter performance and early lineup matchups and can diverge from full-game expectations when bullpens or late-game hitting are factors.
Market prices reflect how participants collectively value each first-five-innings spread outcome at a point in time; they should be read as market-implied assessments of early-game scenarios, not guarantees.
KALSHI currently shows the market close as TBD; typically first-five-innings markets close at or shortly before the official game start time. Check the platform for the published close timestamp and any last-minute updates.
Settlement is based on the official run differential after the first five completed innings of the game (top and bottom). The event uses the game’s official scorekeeping; if the innings are not completed, settlement will follow the platform’s rules.
Announcements of the confirmed starting pitchers, late scratches or lineup changes, unexpected bullpen news, and weather or venue updates are the most likely pregame drivers for first-five-innings pricing.
Resolution depends on KALSHI’s official contingency rules for the market; many platforms require five completed innings for first-5 markets to settle, otherwise positions may be voided or settled per specific policy—consult KALSHI’s event rules for the definitive procedure.
Early runs (especially in the first two innings), pitching changes, major defensive plays or ejections, and weather or delay announcements will typically produce the fastest and largest price movements in a first-five-innings market.