| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York Y wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York Y wins by over 1.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| San Francisco wins by over 2.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| San Francisco wins by over 3.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York Y wins by over 3.5 runs | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which spread outcome will occur between New York Y and San Francisco in their upcoming matchup; it matters because spread markets aggregate public information about expected margin and can move with new developments.
Spread markets for head-to-head sports matchups reflect factors such as recent team form, injuries, travel and coaching matchups rather than just win/loss chances. Historical meetings between the two clubs, roster turnover since those meetings, and where the game is played also shape expectations. Because closes are listed as TBD, traders should watch for official game time and lineup reports before making decisions.
Market prices indicate the collective judgment about which spread outcome the market expects; price changes represent new information or shifts in trader sentiment. Use market prices together with your own research and awareness of late-breaking news when interpreting them.
Each listed outcome corresponds to a defined range or side of the final point differential (for example, one outcome will cover one team winning by a certain margin range and another outcome covers the other team doing so). Consult the market's outcome labels on KALSHI to see the precise ranges and wording, since settlement uses those exact definitions.
The market close is currently TBD; KALSHI will publish a firm close time on the event page. Typically markets close at or shortly before the official game start or when the final lineup/odds are locked, so monitor the market page and platform notifications for updates.
Late injuries change the expected margin if they affect key offensive or defensive contributors; the market usually reacts quickly to reputable injury reports. Evaluate which position is affected and how backups compare, and watch for official confirmations that can shift outcome likelihoods.
Treat head-to-head history as contextual information: give more weight to recent meetings with similar rosters and coaching staffs, and less to older games with different personnel. Combine H2H patterns with current-season metrics (offense/defense efficiency, turnovers, injuries) rather than relying on H2H alone.
Settlement is based on the official final score and the margin of victory as compared to the outcome definitions listed on the market. Overtime is typically included in the final score unless the market rules say otherwise; consult KALSHI's event resolution rules for details on ties, pushes, and any rounding conventions.