| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the combined runs scored by New York Y and San Francisco during the first five innings of their game. It matters because first-five outcomes isolate starting-pitcher matchups and early-game conditions, making them useful for short-term trading and hedging.
First-five innings markets are commonly used to focus on how starters perform before bullpens become a dominant factor. Historical early-inning scoring between these clubs, current season form, lineup health, and ballpark/weather characteristics all provide useful context when assessing this particular matchup. Since the market closes TBD, key pregame updates (lineups, weather, confirmed starters) will materially change expectations.
Market odds indicate how traders collectively price each possible run-total outcome for innings 1–5; interpret them as relative market consensus that updates as new information (starters, weather, scratches) arrives rather than as a fixed forecast.
It covers all runs scored by both teams during innings one through five as actually played; if an inning is not played because the game ends early, only the runs that occurred count toward settlement.
Confirmed starters set baseline expectations: a high-strikeout, low-walk starter typically suppresses early runs, while a struggling or high-contact starter can increase short-term scoring risk; handedness vs the opposing lineup also matters for matchup edges.
Consider ballpark dimensions and prevailing conditions (wind, temperature, humidity) at game time, since colder or wind-against situations usually reduce carry and scoring, while warm, wind-aiding conditions can boost run totals.
The market is split into seven mutually exclusive outcome buckets representing different possible run-total ranges for the first five innings; when the game concludes the bucket matching the actual total determines the winning outcome.
Settlement follows the market's official terms on Kalshi; typically those terms specify minimum innings or conditions required for resolution, so check the market page for the definitive rules and any procedures for delays, cancellations, or lineup changes.