| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Y wins first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| San Francisco wins first 5 innings | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which side of the New York Y vs San Francisco game will be leading, trailing, or tied after the first five innings. It matters to traders who want exposure to early-game dynamics—starter performance, initial offense, and managerial decisions—separated from late innings.
First-five-innings markets isolate the portion of the game most influenced by starting pitchers and the first-use of each team's lineup. In head-to-head matchups like New York Y vs San Francisco, ballpark tendencies, announced starting pitchers, and recent early-inning form typically drive outcomes more than late-game bullpen matchups. The listing on KALSHI reflects this single-game, time-limited focus; the market close is listed as TBD and will be governed by the platform's timing and settlement rules.
Market odds represent the collective view of traders about the state of the game after five innings and will update as new information (lineups, pitcher news, weather) arrives. Use them as a snapshot of market expectations, not as a deterministic prediction.
It refers to the official game score after the completion of the first five innings (both top and bottom) as recorded in the official box score; outcomes are: New York leading, San Francisco leading, or tied.
The event page lists the market close as TBD; typically closure is tied to the scheduled first pitch or an explicit platform update—check the KALSHI event page for the final close time and any last-minute changes.
Settlement follows the platform's official rules and the game's official record: if the first five innings are not completed on the scheduled day, the market may be voided or settled based on the completed game result once the official league record is updated; consult KALSHI’s settlement policy for specifics.
Key items are announced starting pitchers and their health, late scratches in either lineup, bullpen availability if a starter has a short leash, and any reported injuries or rest days for regular hitters—these directly affect early-inning run expectations.
No. This market is determined solely by the official score at the completion of the fifth inning; runs scored after the fifth inning are irrelevant for settlement.