| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tie | 0% | 1¢ | 99¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which side — New York or Denver — will be leading at the end of the first half (with a third outcome for a tie). First-half markets matter because they isolate early-game performance and reward information about starters, pace, and immediate matchups.
New York and Denver are professional franchises whose head-to-head context depends on the sport and season; rivalry intensity and player availability change year to year. Markets that focus on a half rather than the full game highlight short-term factors like starting lineup decisions, coaching strategies for early minutes, and initial momentum.
Odds on this market reflect the aggregated expectations of traders about who will be ahead at halftime and update as new information arrives (lineups, injuries, venue conditions). They should be interpreted as the market’s view of the halftime state, not the full-game result.
The three outcomes are: New York leading at halftime, Denver leading at halftime, or the score being tied at the official halftime buzzer. Settlement is based on the official halftime score reported by the league.
The closing time is listed on the KALSHI event page (currently TBD). Settlement generally occurs after the league’s official halftime score is posted; the market will stop accepting new trades at the announced close time.
Last-minute lineup changes can materially shift expectations because starters determine early-minute matchups and chemistry. Traders typically react quickly to official lineup announcements and coach comments leading up to tipoff.
If the official halftime score is tied, the 'tie' outcome wins. This event explicitly includes a tie outcome to capture that scenario.
If the game does not reach a completed halftime, KALSHI’s settlement rules apply — markets are commonly suspended or voided and funds refunded according to platform policy. Check the event page and platform rules for the definitive treatment.