| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York I wins by over 1.5 goals | 31% | 29¢ | 32¢ | — | $532 | Trade → |
| New York I wins by over 2.5 goals | 17% | 19¢ | 22¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
| St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals | 23% | 24¢ | 27¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
| St. Louis wins by over 2.5 goals | 14% | 15¢ | 18¢ | — | $11 | Trade → |
This market asks which spread bracket the final margin between New York I and St. Louis will fall into; it matters because spread markets capture market expectations about the game's margin, not just the winner.
Spread markets break a head-to-head game into discrete margin ranges and let traders take positions on which range will contain the final outcome. For a matchup between a New York team (listed here as New York I) and St. Louis, typical background considerations include recent form, travel and rest, goaltending, and home-ice effects. The market source is KALSHI and the market shows four possible spread outcomes.
Market prices reflect how participants allocate capital across the available spread outcomes and update as new information arrives; they should be read as the market’s aggregate view, not guarantees of a particular result.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; typically spread markets close at or just before the official game start time. The exact close time will be posted on the KALSHI market page and is when positions are locked.
Each of the four outcomes maps to a distinct range of final margins between New York I and St. Louis (for example: large New York margin, small New York margin, small St. Louis margin, large St. Louis margin). The precise numerical cutoffs for those ranges are shown on the market contract description.
Settlement is based on the official final margin from the league’s box score: compare the final margin to the outcome ranges defined on the market page, and the outcome whose range contains that margin wins. Follow the KALSHI rules posted on the market for tie or edge-case handling.
Such news is a primary driver of price moves in this market; traders typically update positions when a starting goaltender or key skater is scratched. Settlement remains based on the official final score regardless of pre-game changes, so monitor updates closely before market close.
Historical head-to-head results do not affect settlement — the market is settled solely on the official final margin for this specific game — but past results and matchup history are frequently used by traders to inform their expectations and position sizing.