| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York I wins by over 1.5 goals | 34% | 32¢ | 34¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| New York I wins by over 2.5 goals | 21% | 21¢ | 24¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals | 26% | 24¢ | 26¢ | — | $620 | Trade → |
| San Jose wins by over 2.5 goals | 19% | 15¢ | 19¢ | — | $192 | Trade → |
This market asks which margin band (the spread) will apply when New York I visits San Jose; spread markets matter because they reward predictions about margin of victory rather than just which team wins. Traders use these markets to express views on how decisive the game will be.
This is a head-to-head matchup with San Jose as the home team and New York I on the road; season context—injuries, travel, and recent form—typically drives how traders price the spread. The market on KALSHI lists four discrete outcomes representing different margin bands, shows modest liquidity to date, and currently has a closing time listed as TBD on the event page.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations about which margin band the final score will fall into; movement in those prices indicates how new information (lineups, injuries, weather, etc.) is shifting trader consensus. Use the prices to compare market sentiment across outcomes rather than as absolute guarantees.
They represent four discrete margin bands tied to the listed spread: two outcomes correspond to New York I covering the spread across different margin thresholds and two correspond to San Jose covering the spread across different margin thresholds. The market description page lists the exact margin cutoffs for each outcome.
The market's closing time is marked as TBD on the event page; in practice KALSHI markets typically stop trading at the official game start (puck drop/kickoff) or when the promoter posts a firm start time, so monitor the event page for updates and the announced kickoff/puck-drop time.
Resolution is based on the league's official final score and the margin of victory; once the official box score confirms the final margin, the outcome corresponding to that margin band will be paid out and the market settled following KALSHI's rules.
Announcements of the starting pitcher/goalie/quarterback, late scratches to top scorers or defenders, confirmed injuries, goaltender changes, and any reported illness or travel disruptions for either New York I or San Jose are the most market-moving items for the spread.
Modest volume indicates lower liquidity, so prices can swing substantially on relatively small trades or single pieces of news; traders should be cautious, watch for lineup confirmations, and expect sharper price moves than in higher-volume markets.