| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York I wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York I wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the point spread for the New York I at Montreal game will resolve across the four available outcomes; it matters because spread markets let traders express expectations about margin of victory rather than just the outright winner.
Spread contracts on Kalshi break a game’s final margin into discrete outcome ranges so traders can take positions on how big a win or loss will be for either side. For this matchup, relevant context includes recent team form, travel and rest, and any matchup-specific advantages that tend to influence margins in this league and venue.
Market prices represent collective market sentiment about which spread outcome is expected to occur and move as new information arrives; use price movement and available news to gauge how the market is updating its view rather than treating a single quote as definitive.
The four outcomes partition the final margin of the game into four mutually exclusive ranges relative to the spread; each outcome pays if the final margin falls into its assigned range. The specific numeric thresholds for those ranges are listed on the contract page, so check the event description for the exact boundaries.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD. In practice, Kalshi markets typically close at a time tied to the scheduled game start or a platform-specified cutoff; monitor the contract page and official exchange notices for the confirmed close.
Late lineup news is often among the largest short-term drivers of spread movement because it changes expected margin; traders should expect prices to react quickly after such announcements and to reassess positions in light of the updated matchup.
Resolution depends on Kalshi’s event and force-majeure rules—common approaches include voiding contracts and issuing refunds or resolving based on a rescheduled event if the exchange specifies a deadline. Check the market’s terms and the exchange’s event resolution policy for the authoritative procedure.
Head-to-head history can be informative but should be contextualized by changes in rosters, coaching, and situational factors like location and rest; use recent, contextually similar games (same venue, similar roster availability) rather than long-ago results as the primary input for spread expectations.