| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York I wins by over 1.5 goals | 18% | 18¢ | 24¢ | — | $266 | Trade → |
| Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals | 32% | 32¢ | 37¢ | — | $41 | Trade → |
| Los Angeles wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 20¢ | 26¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| New York I wins by over 2.5 goals | 0% | 10¢ | 17¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets traders bet on the point-spread outcome for the matchup titled "New York I at Los Angeles: Spread" on KALSHI. It matters because spread markets reflect market expectations about the margin of victory and provide a way to trade on game competitiveness rather than just winner/loser.
The market sits within a sports betting context where home advantage, travel, and recent team form typically drive expected margins. The listing shows four discrete outcomes rather than a single continuous spread, meaning the market is structured around categorical margin ranges or covering scenarios; total reported volume is modest at $307 and the market close time is not yet announced. Historical head-to-head results, season schedule density, and late roster news are common inputs traders use when assessing this contest.
Market prices on a multi-outcome spread contract represent the market's collective view about which margin category is most likely to occur; higher prices indicate stronger market support for that outcome. Because this is a categorical spread market, interpret prices as relative likelihoods across the four listed margin outcomes rather than a single-point prediction of the final margin.
The four outcomes represent mutually exclusive margin categories or covering scenarios for the spread (for example, different ranges of victory margin or which side covers). The event page and contract description on KALSHI list the exact numeric boundaries and settlement rules for each outcome.
Settlement follows the contract’s specified tie or boundary rules as posted on the event page and KALSHI’s settlement policy; consult the market description for how exact margins on boundaries are resolved (e.g., which outcome is declared the winner).
If the contest is not completed as originally scheduled, KALSHI will follow its published contingency and settlement rules for postponements or cancellations; typically the market will either settle on the official final score once the game occurs within a defined window or be voided/refunded if the event is not played in accordance with platform policy—check the event page for specifics.
Late roster or injury news for New York I or Los Angeles can materially shift expectations across the four spread outcomes; because the market is categorical, that news tends to move several outcome prices at once as traders reallocate exposure to the margin ranges they consider more or less likely.
Yes—with modest total volume, liquidity is limited, so individual trades can move prices substantially and the market consensus may be less stable; exercise caution, check live order books, and account for wider bid/ask spreads before trading.